4 Running Backs Outside the top 20 that could end up in the top 10

 

The running back. It is the premium position for Fantasy Football. While the Quarterback is higher scoring there are enough QBs that can deliver quality numbers, especially in 1 QB leagues. The RB on the other hand gets thin faster since most fantasy football managers start 2 or 3 running backs. If the average team starts 2.5 RBs, that is 25-30 RBs in 10-12 team leagues respectively. Considering Most NFL teams have just one prominent runner on their team, it is difficult to find quality RBs as you get deeper into fantasy rankings. For this reason, the RB position consistently dominates the top overall players to draft.

While it is easy to find a top tier RB in the first & second rounds of drafts, there are always a few surprise running backs every year that outperform their draft ranking. Below are 4 running backs outside the top 20 that I believe have more than a realistic chance to finish inside the top 10. At a minimum they should easily outperform their ranking, making them excellent targets come draft day.

 

JK DOBBINS - RB22 (Overall ADP = 45)

JKD was a top 25 projected pick heading into 2021 but an untimely injury at the end of the preseason caused the 2nd year back to miss his entire sophomore season. Assuming he returns 100% from his injury (and signs point to him being fully recovered), Dobbins is underrated at his current ADP.

Let’s rewind the clock. In 2020, JKD was stuck in a 3 headed committee of GUS EDWARDS and MARK INGRAM but toward the end of the year had pulled away from the pack. Over the last six regular season games, Dobbins amassed 527 yards and 7 touchdowns. He was averaging 88 yards per game at a pace of over 1400 yards in 16 game stretch. By comparison, only 7 RBs had more than 1400 yards last season. Let’s not dismiss his knack for finding the end zone either. 7 touchdowns in 6 games is a 20 TD season pace. I wouldn’t expect that kind of production but even if he can match 60% of that efficiency, and he is in the top 5 overall fantasy RB conversation. The Ravens offense is expected to continue to be a run heavy attack so Dobbins will oft-used runner. Add the TD potential and Dobbins has an incredibly high ceiling heading into his 3rd year.

 

JOSH JACOBS - RB23 (Overall ADP = 47)

 

 

The Las Vegas Raiders have a new chief in town. Josh McDaniels is the team’s head coach and while he the offensive coordinator in New England for the past 10 years, he ran one of the more frustrating offenses when it came to the running back position. The Raiders signed BRANDEN BOLDEN, a former Patriot and a jack-of-all-trades runner, to join the Vegas backfield. They also drafted ZAMIR WHITE who was the smash to the JAMES COOK dash at Georgia last year. In addition, KENYAN DRAKE returns from injury to create what could be a committee run game. Plus, the Raiders declined the fifth-year option on Jacobs, making him likely to play elsewhere in 2023. So why list Jacobs here?

Jacobs came to the league with elite talent pedigree, drafted in the first round after a strong final season at Alabama. He had over 1300 yards in his rookie season. Then followed that up with a second consecutive 1,300-yard season. He also had 12 touchdowns that year. That was in 2020, just one year ago and at 25, he has the talent & age to still be a featured running back. Now, the coach and running back additions aren’t the only change in Vegas. Future Hall of Fame wide receiver DAVANTE ADAMS joins the team to substantially upgrade the pass attack. That should make it easier on the run game as teams are not going to stack the box with Adams, HUNTER RENFROW and DARREN WALLER to contend with in the open field. Even with the additions to the backfield, Jacobs is still clearly the best running back on this team.  Playing for a new contract should provide additional motivation for Jacobs to produce. At a minimum, he’s worth grabbing in the 4th round as a RB2, especially knowing he’s capable of RB1 numbers.

 

RASHAAD PENNY - RB31 (Overall ADP = 86)

 

 

Oh, the unlucky Penny has had one tough go at an NFL career. Through 4 seasons he has only played in 37 of a possible 65 games because he simply can’t stay healthy. But there’s never been a debate about his potential on the field. That was full display to end the 2021 season. In the Seahawks last 5 games, Penny put up some insane stats. He amassed a staggering 692 yards and 6 touchdowns, averaging a blistering 7.2 yards per carry. That performance, along with CHRIS CARSON’S decline, led to Seattle bringing Penny back on a one year deal.

On the heels of the NFL draft, much talk is about second round running back KENNETH WALKER and for good reason. Walker is an intriguing RB in his own right built for lead back duties at the NFL level with only the oft injured Penny in his way. But he’s still a rookie with weaknesses in the pass game and in pass protection. This is a backfield battle to monitor throughout the preseason but if Penny can stay healthy, he has potential to be a home run pick in the 7th/8th round of drafts.

 

CORDARELLE PATTERSON - RB38 (Overall ADP = 105)

 

 

I honestly don’t get this ranking. It’s true that before 2021, Patterson’s best yardage and touchdown totals were 627 yards and 7 TDs. It is also true both of those totals came in his rookie season almost 10 years ago. But one can’t simply dismiss the 2021 campaign. Patterson’s usage last season was significant and productive, amassing 1,166 yards from scrimmage and adding 11 total touchdowns. He was the focal point of the Atlanta Falcons offense.  While the expectation was for free agent signee MIKE DAVIS to lead the team in carries, CP quickly took over as the featured weapon in the offense. His breakout season was good enough to finish as the RB12 in standard leagues last year and 9th in HPPR leagues.

While there are reasons to be concerned that CP is a one hit wonder based on his career, it is noteworthy that the Falcons only added journeyman DAMIEN WILLIAMS in the offseason to replace Davis. Williams will have some touches, but I don’t see him getting much more than the 138 carries vacated by Davis. The backfield clearly belongs to Patterson. What may keep CP from repeating his 2021 season totals is not going to be for a lack of opportunities. I have more concerns about the offense in general than I do Patterson having a critical role within the offense. And even if the Falcons should find themselves playing from behind most of the season, Patterson’s skills as a receiver makes him an ideal back for garbage time production. Nearly half of his production last year came in the passing game. Regardless of whether he repeats his production or falls off, his ADP is a steal. Considering his obvious RB1 upside, I am all over him in rounds 9 and 10.

 

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