Breakout Tight End of 2022

 

 

 

 

The Tight End position has a unique place in the world of fantasy football. The vast majority of leagues only require one starting TE per team. Even in leagues that offer flex positions to include a tight end, the likelihood of starting a second one is fairly remote. In addition, the position is consistently top heavy. This year there are 5 TEs with a case for a top 40 overall pick. If you come away with TRAVIS KELCE (15 overall ADP), MARK ANDREWS (17), KYLE PITTS (33), GEORGE KITTLE (36) or DARREN WALLER (50) you are most likely not looking further for a starting TE. Once you get past these top 5 however, there’s a muddle mix of tight ends that don’t require a top draft pick to acquire. In fact, one could argue it is better to wait until later rounds to grab one while stocking up on other positions. If this sounds like your draft strategy, you should target a breakout candidate.

 

The breakout tight end is more than just a possibility for the 2022 season. History would dictate that a surprise top 7 TE is a near certainty.  Fantasy Footballers certainly remember the DAWSON KNOX breakout of 2021 where his 587 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns was enough for a TE6 finish on the year. Nothing but a backup tight end in the deepest of leagues, Knox was the consensus TE28 in pre draft rankings. Those that rostered Knox last year most likely snagged him off waivers because predicting his breakout was far from common knowledge. But what if you could find that breakout tight end in the draft? Here’s a quick stroll down fantasy breakout TE memory lane…

 

Knox was the most recent in a long run of breakout tight ends. Going back to 2020, ROBERT TONYAN burst onto the fantasy circuit.  He ranked outside the tight end top 30 and finished as the TE3 after posting a career high in yards (586) and touchdowns (11). The year before, a relative unknown by the name of DARREN WALLER was ranked the TE25 in preseason but finished 4th among all TEs with 1,145 receiving yards & 3 scores. In 2018, AUSTIN HOOPER delivered a pro bowl performance with 660 yards & 4 TDs to finish 16 spots higher than his preseason ranking and cracking the top 7 fantasy tight end list. In 2017 it was TE24 rookie EVAN ENGRAM finishing top 5 and on and on. Again, this is a trend of breakout tight ends and not a one time event. The question is who will the tight end be this year and how can a potential target be identified?

 

Using the last 5 as the case study, I found a few characteristics these breakout Tight Ends had in common. The first and most obvious is that each of them was a total dark horse, where none of the five were higher than TE23 in predraft rankings. So that means look beyond the top 20 tight ends. Second, look for tight ends with a veteran QB of at least 4 years played. Next, look for a pro bowl caliber or elite signal caller behind center. JOSH ALLEN is arguably the best QB in the NFL right now. AARON RODGERS a Hall of Famer. DEREK CARR was coming off 3 straight pro bowls and MATT RYAN a 4 time pro bowl & Super bowl runner up QB. ELI MANNING was a 2 time Super Bowl champion with multiple pro bowls to his credit. Finally, none of the breakout TEs had ever been inside the top 10 before. That means you have to look for a real unknown tight end to breakout onto the fantasy football scene.

 

What tight ends fit the mold of this super sleeper tight end? Here are 3 that fit the mold.

 

GERALD EVERETT - TE24

 Everett is an intriguing tight end this season and actually has been just outside the fantasy radar for a few years now. He showed flashes in his first 4 years as a pro, showing off speed and athleticism to be a mismatch in the open field. Unfortunately his career had been spent sharing the tight end duties with TYLER HIGBEE out in LA. In 2021, Everett finally got his opportunity to be the main tight end in a new offense. Sadly, it was with the RUSSELL WILSON led Seahawks. This isn’t a knock on Wilson as a passer, however he simply doesn’t target tight ends enough to make them reliable in fantasy and certainly not top seven. That said, Everett did have his best year as a pro in Seattle with career highs in yards (478) and touchdowns (4). This year, Gerald Everett is in position to deliver career highs once again.

 

After signing a 2 year deal, Everett takes over as the Chargers starting tight end.  The Bolts offense is expected to be a vertical offense with JUSTIN HERBERT under center. Herbert isn’t a veteran quarterback like most of the quarterbacks listed above, but like Josh Allen has proven to be a star having already reached a pro bowl in his young career. The Chargers have a legacy of productive fantasy including ANTONIO GATES and HUNTER HENRY.  Everett is in a prime position to join them on the fantasy stage and take a leap into the top 7 this season.

 

ADAM TRAUTMAN - TE27

 

 A 3rd round pick in the 2019 NFL draft, Trautman was expected to be an impact player on offense. In his senior year, Trautman had 70 receptions for 916 yards and 14 touchdowns. Barely playing as a rookie behind JARED COOK, Trautman took over as the starting tight end in 2021 and was off to a decent start. He had 25 catches for 241 yards before an injury derailed the back half of his sophomore season. That was a pace of 43 receptions and 410 yards. I would not suggest that was a good season by fantasy measures but simply that he may not be as far off from TE1 numbers as the season ending stats would suggest. 

 His QB is not quite as elite by the standards met by past breakout TE’s quarterbacks.  JAMEIS WINSTON has just one pro bowl appearance to his resume. However I believe Winston’s veteran savvy and NFL draft pedigree are enough to compensate & qualify. In addition, Winston is known for being TE friendly. In his final year in Tampa, the co-starting tight end duo of OJ HOWARD and CAMERON BRATE combined for 770 yards and 5 touchdowns. For those keeping score, that would have been enough to finish as the TE9 in 2021. That fantasy total was just 7 points away from the TE7 finish & that was in a 16 game season as opposed to the 17 games now played. In 2019, that Tampa TE tandem had 854 yards and 11 TDs, which would have been enough to finish top 3 at the position. In short, Winston is a QB that can make Trautman’s shot at being this year’s breakout tight end a reality. Considering Winston has to break in a rookie receiver (CHRIS OLAVE) build a rapport with the recently added JARVIS LANDRY and wait until MICHAEL THOMAS is healthy, a reliable holdover like Trautman could see a significant increase in targets & production.

 

 

HAYDEN HURST - TE28

 Perhaps a surprise name as a “breakout” candidate, Hurst has been in the sleeper TE range without ever achieving #1 fantasy TE numbers. Considering he was a first round pick in 2018, it is fair to say Hurst has failed to live up to expectations. He came close to doing so in 2020, his first year with the Falcons. His 571 yards and 6 touchdowns was by far his best season as a pro and ended up the TE11 that season. Last year, KYLE PITTS all but made him useless in the Atlanta offense making him an expendable player for the Falcons to move on from in the offseason. Now on his 3rd team in 4 years, Hurst has a lot to prove he can be a reliable difference maker.

 

Hurst couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot now that he is the presumed starter in the high octane Bengals offense led by JOE BURROW. He replaces CJ UZOMAH who ended up with 493 yards and 5 scores last season. In my view, Hurst is a better receiving tight end than Uzomah so 500 yards and 5 touchdowns is a fairly safe floor. For the most part, the breakout TE did so by capturing a significant amount of touchdowns. It is reasonable to think Hayden can accomplish that feat. Burrow made Uzomah the 3rd most targeted player in the red zone last year behind only J’MARR CHASE and TEE HIGGINS. If he can establish himself as a reliable red zone weapon, Hurst is in the right place to break into the top 7 this season.

 

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