The Tight End. A staple of the fantasy football lineup but
is fourth in a 4-horse race of skill position player importance. The
new passing league era of the NFL has made the TE more valuable and this year
is no exception. I see a path for 9 count them NINE tight ends to eclipse 1000
yards, which would blow away the single season mark of 4 set back in 2015.
While there are a lot of great options at the top of the TE rankings, one
constant has been true of the position. Every year a TE with an Expert
Consensus Ranking (ECR) outside the top 20 cracks the top 8 in fantasy
production.
Looking back over the past 7 years, here are the tight ends that made the fantasy leap.
2021 = Dawson Knox TE28 to TE6
2022 = Evan Engram TE22 to TE6
In 2023, Jake Ferguson was the latest to follow this trend, vaulting from an ECR of TE28 to finish as the TE8. We also saw a real anomaly when rookie Sam LaPorta shattered his TE20 redraft ranking to become THE number one fantasy tight end. While I don’t expect to see a 20+ tight end jump into the top spot again, the trend of a 20+ ranked TE landing in the top 8 is almost a given. Below are my top candidates to make the leap.
TYLER CONKLIN (ECR = TE20)
During his 7 year career, Conklin has been a mediocre fantasy option at best. Used sparingly in his first 3 seasons, the last 3 (one with the Vikings and last two with the Jets) Conklin has averaged 589 yards a season. He has not been much of a TD threat either, no more than 3 in a given season and zero in 2023. So what makes him appealing here? The quarterback. AARON RODGERS is a hall of fame gunslinger throwing for over 4000 yards ten times over his career including 5 times in the last 8 seasons. That includes last season where he played 3 snaps. Assuming Rodgers is healthy, the entire Jets offense gets a massive boost over last season. While most are looking to a big season from alpha receiver GARRETT WILSON, it is in the realm of possibility for Rodgers to afford his tight end a career year, just like he did to Robert Tonyan in 2020 when Tonyan ended up the TE3 in all of fantasy. Conklin displays average game speed & route running but his soft hands and toughness make him a potential red zone threat. It is in this capacity he will need to have a career season. If he can become ARod’s red zone touchdown maker, he will prove to be a steal late in drafts.
Noah Fant (ECR = TE24)
Fant has never quite lived up to the hype as a 1st round pick in the 2019 draft. He’s an exceptional athlete with outstanding catch radius. Coming out of college had a touchdown catch in nearly 1 out of 4 receptions. As a Denver Bronco, he averaged 635 yards per season but in offenses led by JOE FLACCO, DREW LOCK and TEDDY BRIDGEWATER the team never utilized his talents in the end zone failing to score more than 4 in a single season. His stats got worse after he was traded to Seattle but two things have changed this year that make him a true sleeper. First, the Seahawks brought in Ryan Grubb as the new Offensive Coordinator. Grubb is best known for his work as OC with the Washington Huskies pass attack, ranking 1st and 2nd in pass yards per game in 2022 & 2023 respectively. His philosophy should dramatically improve the pass attack in Seattle. The second is the fact that last year Fant was part of a 3 man tight end rotation with COLBY PARKINSON and WILL DISSLY. In 2023, the trio totalled 74 receptions, 833 yards and 3 TDs. That total would have been good enough to finish 10th in 2023. Both Parkinson and Dissly have signed elsewhere in the offseason and there’s virtually no competition behind Fant. The arrival of a passing game guru and departure of quality competition makes Fant a top candidate for a breakout campaign.
Mike Gesicki (ECR = TE28)
Gesicki comes with 2nd round draft capital and a handful of solid fantasy seasons, his best came in 2020, where he totalled 703 yards and 6 touchdowns on 53 receptions. He followed up in 2021 with a career high in receptions (73) and yards (780) and a pair of scores. Talent and history would say this is definitely a possibility; However his fantasy stock gas plummeted in recent years logging just 606 yards over the last two seasons combined. Gesicki is now in Cincinnati playing with JOE BURROW who is arguably the best quarterback Gesicki has played with in his career. The tight end has not been an area of success in the Burrow led offense. No TE has eclipsed 500 yards since Burrow arrived in Cincinnati. However Gesicki’s pass catching skillset could change that. An underrated loss in the Bengals offense was the departure of slot receiver TYLER BOYD. Boyd averaged over 50 yards a game and a score every 3rd with Burrow under center. While third round rookie JERMAINE BURTON is expected to be the new slot receiver, Gesicki can be used in a similar fashion. With limited competition for tight end snaps and a healthy Joe Burrow expected this season, Gesicki could be a surprise.
Ben Sinnott (ECR
= TE26)
The 53rd overall pick in the 2023 draft, Sinnott is a very intriguing NFL prospect. He reminds me of 49ers KYLE JUSZCZYK as a hybrid full back and tight end. He possesses nice athleticism and hands to be a passing game weapon and safety valve for fellow rookie quarterback JAYDEN DANIELS. Currently ZACH ERTZ sits atop the Commanders depth chart but has failed to stay healthy. With Ertz turning 34 this season, his best years are behind him and Sinnott could push for quality snaps immediately with significant snaps incoming should Ertz miss time. Rookie TEs don’t typically make a splash impact year so a lot needs to happen for Sinnott to crack the top 10 but there is a path which makes him a dark horse candidate at a very affordable draft price.
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