It's fantasy football draft season! Today we are talking draft strategy specifically for later rounds. I looked at players currently ranked outside the Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) top 150 players to find guts that I think are great value. With more leagues moving to a scoring format that rewards receptions (PRR) I focused on wide receivers with high upside and low risk. Here are some of my favorites.
XAVIER LEGETTE
ECR = 174
Gotta admit, I have an affinity for the big monster plays the outside type of receivers. XL is that kind of guy.
Legette is an imposing 6’3” 225 and runs a 4.39 40. Big and fast, Legette has the physical tools to be an alpha at the NFL level with a game that reminds me of Seattle’s alpha DK METCALF. I am not alone in thinking Legette can be an alpha. The Panthers made him a 1st round pick in the 2024 draft and is already turning heads in practices.
Last year the Carolina pass game was an abject failure. Enter Dave Canales. The new Panthers head coach is an offensive mind with a history of improving QB play and passing game production. That bodes well for second year QB BRYCE YOUNG and his receiving core. There is competition for targets however. DIONTE JOHNSON is that “7-11” always open type of receiver. He’s a good bet to lead the team in targets. But XL can push for the #2 target option rather quickly. ADAM THIELEN, last year’s leading receiver, turns 34 before the season starts and showed signs of slow down at the end of his 2023 campaign. JONATHAN MINGO, last year’s 2nd round pick, is a talent but I simply don’t view him with as much upside as Legette. The X man does need to improve route running and separation but at his best, Legette plays unstoppable. That’s the kind of receiver I want to take a chance on in the last rounds of the draft.
MICHAEL WILSON
ECR = 167
The forgotten man in an otherwise dismissed offense, Wilson and the Arizona Cardinals should see a drastic difference in production from 2023.
KYLER MURRAY missed half of the 2023 season due to an injury but now at 100%, should lead a much-improved offense. The most notable holdover from 2023 is tight end TREY MCBRIDE and the organization made a splash in the 2024 draft selecting the generational talent of MARVIN HARRISON JR. On a related note, if you haven’t seen MHJ make plays, I encourage you to go watch highlights. Kid is impressive and the NFL world knows this. That can be a benefit to Wilson who should see softer coverages as a result. At 6’2” 215, Wilson is a strong and sturdy outside receiver who can make tough and contested catches. He’s an ideal red zone threat for this reason as well.
Wilson had limited exposure to playing with Murray last year but in 2 games they played together, he had 130 yards and a score. He has potential to be a 1000-yard guy even playing second fiddle to MHJ. His physical traits make him a potential touchdown maker. I think his upside is in the range of 1000 yards and 7 scores. In 2023, that would have been good enough for a top 20 WR finish. The cost is virtually nothing for a guy who could end up as a WR2 and push for weekly lineup consideration.
DEMARCUS ROBINSON
ECR = 198
There’s nothing sexy about D-Rob. He’s an 8-year veteran and the
#3 WR in LA behind COOPER KUPP and PUCA NACUA. He’s never had a season with 500+
receiving yards. So why would he be on anyone’s radar? I got a few answers.
Let’s start with MATTHEW STAFFORD and the LA offense. The Rams started the season
off slow in 2023. During the 1st 9 games of the year, the Rams pass
game averaged 251 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. But Stafford got hot late, leading the
Rams to win 5 of their last 6 games (the only loss an OT thriller with the
Ravens) en route to a playoff berth. In the final 7 games of the season, the
Rams pass attack was averaging 296 passing yards a game with 17 touchdowns
(that’s two and a half TDs a game!) and just 3 INTs over that span. Robinson was a key cog in that production
wheel.
D-Rob barely saw the field early on last year but starting in week 12 he started to see meaningful snaps. The following week he blew up. In the 4 games from weeks 13 – 16, Robinson had 342 yards and 4 touchdowns. I wouldn’t expect that torrid pace to sustain for an entire season, however even as the 3rd option in the Rams pass attack Robinson proved he can be an impact fantasy asset. If you believe the 2024 Rams will replicate the offensive success they had in the back half of 2023, Robinson is a great buy with your final draft pick.
JAVON BAKER
ECR = 204
Truth be told, I am not very excited about the Patriots offense this year. I don’t expect a lot of scoring and the modest production expected from this team is likely to come from RHAMONDRE STEVENSON out of the backfield. But Baker lands in the “worth taking a flier” category, especially in PPR leagues. Here’s why!
At 6’1” 210 running a 4.54 40, Baker has good size and speed for the NFL. Baker had a breakthrough senior season totaling 1,139 yards with 7 touchdowns and that was on just 52 catches. Baker is best known for his hands. In college he showed tremendous ability to make the toughest of catches in coverage, contested and off target. His top end speed and route quickness was a question mark that dropped him to the 4th round of the draft but his separation in camp thus far has been on display & making several head turn plays. Even with his speed a concern, the fact that he was averaging nearly 22 yards per reception in his senior year shows his ability to make big plays.
Outside of DEMARIO DOUGLAS and fellow rookie JA’LYNN POLK there isn’t much competition in the receiver room to keep Baker on the sideline. There’s a good chance Baker sees significant snap share in short order making him a nice target in your last round.
DARNELL MOONEY
ECR = 171
Mooney lands on this list for two reasons. Follow the money and follow the QB.
Mooney signed a massive contract in the offseason, getting a 3 year $39M ($26M guaranteed) deal to play for the Atlanta Falcons. His 2024 salary is higher than notable WRs like DAVANTE ADAMS and DK METCALF. A player getting this kind of money is not brought in to simply compete for a role. With that level of investment, the Falcons plan to use him a ton. What makes it possible for usage to equal production is the upgrade at QB. The Falcons went big to bring in KIRK COUSINS, who will almost certainly improve the passing game.
The arrival of Cousins has increased the prospects of both DRAKE LONDON and tight end KYLE PITTS, however Cousins is a drop back passer capable of making more than just these two guys fantasy relevant. Enter Mooney.
As an NFL sophomore, Mooney topped 1000 yards which made him a buzzy name for the next few years. However, in a lackluster pass offense led by JUSTIN FIELDS (sorry Fields truthers) Mooney failed to reach 500 yards in either subsequent season. Add the capital investment with the improved QB play in Atlanta, Mooney is poised for another 1000 yard season in year 5 and you can draft him in virtually the last round.
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