The flood of young guns at the quarterback position has made the depth of the position stronger than ever. There’s a few buried down the rankings that I think can push into the QB1 tier. Here are four QBs outside the top 15 that can be a hit, making them great values in drafts this Fall.
QB19 - TREVOR LAWRENCE
Will Lawrence ever be a fantasy QB1? What if I told you he already was! Hard to believe, but Lawrence was QB8 in 2022. He took a step back falling just outside the QB1 tier finishing as QB13 in 2023. Lawrence was injured last year and didn’t finish the season. Now healthy, the Jaguars made real changes that give promise to the former #1 overall pick.
The Jaguars named Liam Coen as the new head coach. Coen was the offensive coordinator of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year, a unit that finished with the #3 offense in the NFL and saw BAKER MAYFIELD finish as QB4. Coen is already putting pieces together that fit the Bucs skill players. Holdover BRIAN THOMAS JR is the WR1 and have to imagine Coen sees BTJ playing the MIKE EVANS role. With the second pick of the NFL draft, the Jaguars traded up to grab TRAVIS HUNTER, a slot receiver in the mold of CHRIS GODWIN (my pre-draft comp for Hunter was JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA but similar player) then added BHASHUL TUTEN with the 2nd pick of the fourth round. I see DARREN SPROLES but Coen probably sees BUCKY IRVING. Either way, another weapon that should help in the pass game.
Lawrence has always had the talent to be a top 10 QB, proving in a past top 10 finish. Now has a QB friendly offensive guru leading the charge and young upside weapons at his disposal. I think Lawrence is being drafted at his floor. Grab him late in drafts for the ceiling.
QB23 - JJ MCCARTHY
I’ll admit I wasn’t a big fan of McCarthy coming out of college. I had concerns over his field vision and decision making. The fact that he had less than 150 passing yards in 5 of his last 6 collegiate games didn’t do any favors for adding confidence. What did help was draft capital and situation because the QB friendly Vikings made JJ a top 10 pick in the 2024 draft. So I started looking at what I did like about him.
While nothing jumped off the tape as elite, at 6’3” 205, McCarthy has good size and showcased solid mobility. I wouldn’t call him a running QB but he has ability to run if needed. Even though he wasn’t asked to do much, McCarthy did show that he was highly efficient as a passer. He reminds a bit like BAKER MAYFIELD and while Baker took a while to get going, the right situation and skill players turned Baker into a top 10 fantasy QB. Enter Kevin O’Connell.
Another QB that failed to make a mark in the NFL until he landed in Minnesota was SAM DARNOLD. Last year with Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings, Darnold finished as the QB9. The Vikings return all the same key players that made Darnold a QB1 for fantasy. McCarthy essentially red shirt his rookie season giving him time to digest the playbook. With great coaching and an arsenal of receiving weapons there’s no reason JUSTIN JEFFERSON, JORDAN ADDISON, TJ HOCKENSON and the Vikings offense can’t propel McCarthy to a top 10 finish in fantasy this year. He’s going around pick 150 which means he’s a zero-risk pick with QB1 upside.
QB22 - BRYCE YOUNG
It’s been a rough start to Young’s career. He was drafted as the #1 overall player in 2023 and his rookie season was a year to forget, finishing with 2,877 passing yards and just 11 TDs to 10 INTs. In several games he looked lost and led many to wonder if the pro game was too big for him. In 2024, Carolina recruited Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Cannales away from Tampa Bay to be the Panthers head coach and steer Young’s course in the right direction. Just 2 games into the season, Young was benched in what was dubbed a reset. And it worked.
Young’s final season stats don’t tell the story as to why there’s reason to be optimistic. He blossomed as the season progressed, logging a top 8 QB performance 3 times over the final 6 games. In Young’s last 3 games, Bryce had 612 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, 10 TDs and 0 INTs which was over 27 fantasy ppg.
Bryce returns to the same system along with 3 sophomore contributors XAVIER LEGETTE, JATAVION SANDERS and JALEN COKER. Now the Panthers add elite receiving prospect TET MCMILLAN to the receiving corps. It’s a good young nucleus of weapons for Bryce to be successful playing for a coach that has a history of getting the best out of his QBs. An afterthought in drafts, he’s a last round dart throw that could pay off big.
QB19 - DRAKE MAYE
This one requires a bit more leap of faith but there’s a path for Maye. In his rookie season, Maye finished as the QB23 with a lack of vertical weapons and the worst ranked offensive line in the league. So what changed in 2024? In a word, alot.
The Patriots brought back Josh McDaniels to run the offense. He had a lot of success in the NFL as a play caller albeit mostly with TOM BRADY at the helm with mixed results without Brady. However, Maye is easily the best QB prospect/talent McDaniels has seen outside of Brady. Either way, it’s an upgrade. Next the team worked to bolster their offensive line, bringing in two veterans with far better grades last year than the respective players they are replacing. Perhaps most importantly the Pats added a franchise left tackle WILL CAMPBELL with the 4th pick in the NFL draft.
Then the Patriots added weapons for Maye ,starting with a legit #1 wide receiver signing STEFON DIGGS to a massive 3 year deal. In the draft, the Patriots added KYLE WILLIAMS in the 3rd round (pro comp = TYLER LOCKETT) as a complementary receiver and pass catching speedster TREVEYON HENDERSON (think JAHMYR GIBBS) to lead the backfield.
I don’t know the Patriots got elite upgrades at OC, OL and WR but they are definitely upgrades. However, for Maye to make the leap into the QB1 range, it requires a belief that the 2024 3rd overall pick is HIM. What I saw from Maye’s college tape was a QB with elite physical traits and an underrated dual threat athlete. This showed up at the NFL level too. What also showed up was inconsistencies but does possess the tools to correct as his career continues. If he makes a year 2 leap in his development, the stage is set for a big year and Maye is available at the end of drafts making him a risk free pick.
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