The Tight End.
A staple of the fantasy football lineup but is fourth in a 4-horse race of skill position player importance. The new passing league era of the NFL has made the TE more valuable and this year is no exception. I see a path for 9 count them NINE tight ends to eclipse 1000 yards, which would blow away the single season mark of 4 set back in 2015. While there are a lot of great options at the top of the TE rankings, one constant has been true of the position. Every year a TE with an Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) outside the top 20 cracks the top 8 in fantasy production.
Looking back over the past 7 years, here are the tight ends that made the fantasy leap.
In 2018, AUSTIN HOOPER went from a pre-season TE23 ECR to a TE7 fantasy finish
2019 = DARREN WALLER TE25 to TE4
2020 = ROBERT TONYAN TE30 to TE3
2021 = DAWSON KNOX TE28 to TE6
2022 = EVAN ENGRAM TE22 to TE6
2023 = JAKE FERGUSON TE28 to TE8 and SAM LAPORTA TE20 to TE1
2024 = JONNU SMITH TE32 to TE4 and ZACH ERTZ TE35 to TE8. Honorable mention TUCKER KRAFT TE28 to TE9
Of note, injury to the position was not a key reason for the out-performance of ADP, so for this article I am dismissing guys like ISAIAH LIKELY and NOAH GRAY who would obviously see a massive bump should MARK ANDREWS or TRAVIS KELCE (respectively) miss any time. The players I’ve noted below are all in position to vault into the top 8 without any changes to the position group.
ZACH ERTZ
ECR TE20 / ADP 160
This seems like an obvious possibility considering he finished as TE8 last year. Ertz has always had the talent but in recent years he battled injuries that kept him off the field. Last year paired with JAYDEN DANIELS not only did Ertz stay healthy all year but became a major part of the offense once again. His 654 yards were the most he logged since 2019 and his 7 touchdowns the second highest total in his 14 year career. If Ertz can turn back time again in 2025, he’s a smash pickup you can get in the last round of your draft.
BRENTON STRANGE
ECR TE23 / ADP 175
A trendy sleeper pick, Strange remains outside looking in to even make a fantasy roster. While he hasn’t done much in his 2 years as a pro, the 3rd could be a charm. Strange has been stuck behind EVAN ENGRAM, a perennial top 6 TE since he joined the Jaguars. Engram suffered an injury plagued season that gave way to Strange getting more involved in the offense. Engram is gone and the Jags didn’t bring in competition for Strange, making the job essentially his. Strange had a modest 40 receptions for 411 yards and 2 TDs last year but Engram vacates another 47 catches, 365 yards and 2 more scores. The combination of the two would have been a TE9 finish. While eyes are on BRIAN THOMAS JR and rookie TRAVIS HUNTER, TREVOR LAWRENCE loves the tight end. From a projected target share perspective Strange can end up a steal, especially if new head coach Liam Coen can get the offense on track as he is expected to do.
THEO JOHNSON
ECR TE36 / ADP 250
Johnson didn’t do much his rookie season which was cut short by injury. But Johnson was starting to show signs of promise in his final 5 games of the season. During that stretch, Johnson had 27 catches for 216 yards and a score. Over a 17 game season , that is a pace of 91 receptions, 735 yards & 3 TDs which would have qualified for a top 12 finish. While RUSSELL WILSON has never been what I call a tight end friendly QB, there’s simply not many options in the passing game. The lack of competition can lead to Johnson’s pathway as a volume tight end and a dark horse to make the top 8 this year.
ECR TE26 / ADP 200
It is rare a rookie vaults into the top 8 their first year but the son of Hall of Famer Jason Taylor is in a good position to do so. Drafted 42nd overall, Taylor made his mark at the college level as a reliable target, doing a good job working underneath as a QB safety valve. Good hands, speed and separation skills. Taylor also goes from catch to run quickly which can be a plus to pick up yards after the catch. Considering the relative lack of weapons in the Jets passing game, Fields may rely heavily on Taylor this year.
ELIJAH ARROYO
ECR TE28 / ADP 215
Another top 50 draft pick, Arroyo would have been a candidate for the 1st round had he not missed most of the 2022 and 2023 seasons with knee injuries. Nevertheless, Arroyo lands in a good spot for immediate impact. The Seahawks have high expectations for Arroyo, who possesses good route running skills and surprising speed for his size. The Seahawks are so impressed with his skillset, they cut veteran NOAH FANT before the preseason even started. Arroyo seems more of a long shot but the signs point to production from game one.
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