Dark Horses
Quarterbacks
Cam Ward vs NYJ
We don’t know what to make of the Jets. Theoretically defense was not great last year, ranking 4th worst against QBs. At the trade deadline traded away star DT Quinnen Williams. They have a 1st time DC in Brian Duker after several years and stops as a secondary coach with Lions and Dolphins, who ranked 18th vs pads in 2025. They add Minkah Fitzpatrick who ranked 5th among safeties last year for Miami so Duker has familiarity there. They drafted edge David Bailey at pick 2. There are changes. Will it be enough?
Ward going into his 2nd year has a new energizing HC Robert Saleh, new OC in Brian Daboll who did pretty well with rookie Jaxson Dart. Daboll got WanDale from the Giants who is a solid safety valve. Carnell Tate was taken at pick 4. Calvin Ridley is healthy. Gunnar Helm another solid and serviceable underneath target. Ward could surprise with 250 and 2
Geno Smith vs TEN
Same game as Cam. New life with the Jets which is a weird thing to say there’s new life as a Jet. Before going to Las Vegas behind a legend bad OL Geno was a solid QB. He had 4320 pass yards & 21 TDs the year before. Jets are not expected to have a great OL but definitely better than LV last year and way better weapons. GW, rookies Cooper & Sadiq, AD Mitchell who I will talk about later
Wide Receivers
Darnell Mooney vs DAL
Dallas improved their defense but still suspect on back end even with the addition of Caleb Downs who I like a lot. The other WRs are Injured Nabers & rookie Fields Lack of weapons means someone has to catch the ball. I expect Dallas to put points on the board and Giants will have to pass more than they philosophically would like
Jalen Coker vs CHI
Coker signed a 3 year $35M contract in June & could be up to $41M with incentives. Not elite money but starter money. Breakout performance in playoffs with 9 catches for 134 yards and a TD. He scored in 4 of last 6 games played. All eyes on TMac could make Coker a high target option for Bryce Young again. Bears are better vs run than the pass so I expect a more pass heavy gameplan from Carolina.
Adonai Mitchell vs TEN
People forget about AD & it’s only his 3rd year. He was pick 52 in the 2024 draft. Here’s what I saw from the tape as a prospect coming out of Texas. At 6’4” 215 has height, feet and quickness that makes him dangerous. He also runs 4.34 40 time which is not just impressive for his size but elite NFL speed to make him a downfield threat. He has as a bit raw with an underdeveloped route tree but my upside comp at the time was George Pickens. Now idk he’s ever gonna be a GP but 3rd breakout WRs is a real thing and when Wilson was hurt last year showed glimpses. The best reported of AD & Geno chemistry in training camp which makes sense because Geno is a gunslinger QB. One big play puts AD on the map.
Dontayvion Wicks vs WAS
Commanders are missing Trey Amos their outside starting WR. While all eyes will be on Devonta Smith, Wicks could be a surprise. Makai Lemon has had a slow go in camp. Dallas Goedert is likely the #2 option for Jalen Hurts but Commanders linebackers are upgraded with Leo Chenal coming from the Chiefs and Sonny Styles out of OSU. The Coms weakness is outside so while attention will be on Smith & Goedert, Wicks could be a surprise.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard vs NYJ
Pollard is one of the most consistent runners in the NFL with over 1000 yards in 4 straight seasons. He faces one of the most run friendly defenses a year ago. He’s the main RB. Last 5 games of 2025 = 535 yds 3 TDs
At the trade deadline Jets traded away star DT Quinnen Williams which hurts their run stopping.
Mike Washington vs MIA
I loved what I saw on tape of Mike Washington. He’s a big back at 6’2” 223 and ran a blistering 4.33 at the combine. When he gets a hole at the line can accelerate through it for big plays. He showed that off in preseason with a 53 yarder in week 1 and a 33 yarder in week 2. Ashton Jeanty is playing and is the workhorse. However new head coach Klint Kubiak does like to pace touches of his top RB like he did in Seattle with Charbonnet that drive Walker managers crazy. Miami is expected to have a below average run defense in what looks like a rebuilding year. We know Jeanty is a must start but Washington is a dark horse play
Keaton Mitchell vs AZ
The Cardinals ranked 3rd against opposing running backs last year and the Chargers offensive line is one of the best when healthy. They bolstered their run blocking in the offseason adding tight ends Charlie Kolar and fullback Alec Ingold, both are considered top blockers at their positions. It tells me the Chargers are committed to running the ball. Now, the offense will run through Omarion Hampton who is primed for a big game. But the Chargers are favored by 9.5, the highest of the weekend. That means Vegas is expecting a big win by the Chargers. Enter Keaton Mitchell, a hand picked free agent addition endorsed by new OC Mike McDaniel. If the Chargers build a big lead, Mitchell could end up with additional work. His big play ability makes him an interesting upsider.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton vs CIN
Otton isn’t a tight end anyone is considering outside of a TEP league. Last year he had just 4 games where he had over 51 yards and only 1 TD all season. But here’s why he might surprise. First off, Otton is going against the Bengals, who were the most TE friendly defense of 2025. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are getting adjusted to life after Mike Evans. Let’s be real, that leaves a big hole to fill. Chris Godwin is ironically the healthiest receiver on the team. Jalen McMillan has earned Bakers trust but will miss the opener. Emeka Egbuka has a toe injury. He is playing but no one knows the severity. If it’s turf toe, he could be less effective.The team drafted combine riser Ted Hurst in the 3rd round but still just a rookie. Out of necessity and matchup opportunity, Otton could end up with one of the better TE stat lines of the weekend.
Michael Mayer vs MIA
Absolutely a product of opportunity, Bowers missing the opening game gives way for Mayer to have a big role Sunday. Miami ranked 5th worst against tight ends in 2025 and the rebuilding franchise did little in the offseason to boost confidence they will be better. Kirk Cousins is what I call a TE friendly QB. He leverages the position frequently and always has. That bodes well for Mayer. The Raiders are likely to lean heavily on the run game but they will pass and considering the competition Cousins should be efficient at the very least. Both free agent signee Jalen Nailor and holdover Tre Tucker could benefit from the matchup too but I really like Mayer to show he’s more than just a Bowers backup.
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