Quarterbacks
Josh Allen vs HOU
Let me be clear, you are not sitting Josh Allen. But the matchup will certainly have some worried and they should be. The strength of the Texans is their defense. They held Allen to 253-0-2 last year
Jordan Love vs MIN
The Vikings were the #1 defense against the pass last year. They have changes with their DC headed to Washington but personnel largely intact
Love last year had 168 ypg 1 TD 2 INTs
Trevor Lawrence
For all their woes, Browns are actually solid defensively, especially against the run. CLE gave up 187 ypg to opposing QBs. Changes up front but secondary still solid. They lost Myles Garrett but I wouldn’t discount getting Jared Verse to apply pressure. I am very high on Lawrence and am starting him in spots. I am starting him in a league where I sat Drake Maye knowing that wasn’t going to go well. But I’d temper expectations
Wide Receiver
Christian Watson vs MIN
Theme with the Vikings pass defense. Not a name people know outside of Minnesota but James Pierre is one of the best cover corners in the NFL. He allowed only 16 receptions on 35 targets, with 10 pass breakups, and a 57.2 passer rating allowed in 2025. He had just 49 yards last time he faced the Vikings.
Rashee Rice vs DEN
Patrick Surtain & Denver defense one of the best. Ja’Quan McMillian ranked 4th in PFF coverage grade playing in the slot. Riley Moss led the league in passes defensed. Rice had a rocky offseason with surgery and jail. Last game against the Broncos he only had 38 yards receiving.
Terry McLaurin vs PHI
I think the concerns with their offensive line have been overstated. However, the Eagles front still one of the best leaving JD little time to go downfield. Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper Dejean & Riq Woolen - don’t have to travel. Had 3 catches for 53yards and 4 catches for 57 yards in two meetings last year
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker vs DEN
Denver was THE #1 defense against the run. After wk 2, Only 1 RB (Jacobs) had more than 70 rush yards. Walker is terrific but even he can get bottled up against top defensive fronts. Last year, starting in week 6 the Seahawks faced 3 teams that ranked top 10 vs the run in 2025. The Jaguars, Texans and Vikings. He had 47, 66 and 74 total yards. He didn’t score in any of those games.
Walker should be a focal point of the Chiefs offense especially in Mahomes 1st game back from a severe leg injury that we all expect will limit his mobility at least to start the year. But I would still temper expectations.
Quinshon Judkins vs JAC
Jags were top 3 vs run in 2025. Watson got a lot of work in the preseason so I don’t think he will start slow however he didn’t look great and 2 of his key weapons are rookies. Judkins could see a lot of stacked boxes. Further, we have seen a trend growing in the NFL of teams using tandem backfields more than just change of pace. We saw it with the Rams, Niners, Seahawks and probably would have if Hendo was healthy for the Pats. Dylan Sampson is a solid running back and I expect he will have a part to play at least on passing downs. In fact, Judkins ceded carries in college to Hendo in a similar capacity.
Judkins will be a good RB2 this season but game one I would temper expectations. He might be a TD dependent play.
Travis Etienne vs DET
ETN is expected to be the guy. For sure. The backfield isn’t exactly healthy. However, Kamara is expected to play and I could see him used in at least pass downs situations. The concern isn’t as much competition for touches as the matchup. Last year the Lions were 7th against opposing RBs and gave up 83 ground yards to a single RB just once. If Kamara siphons receiving work, ETN’s final stat line could be modest
Tight Ends
Trey McBride vs LAC
Let’s be clear. The #1 rule to live by is SYS. For those that want to know more, you can check out my article on why you always Start Your Studs. That said, it might not be the best performance from McBride. LAC was one of the better defenses against tight ends. Derwin James is a unicorn as a safety because he has the speed and size to match up against tight ends. The Chargers ranked 5th against opposing Tight Ends in 2025. After week 7 last year only one TE had a TD against them and that was Brock Bowers. It wasn’t like they faced push over tight ends or tight ends not part of the offense. They faced some solid TEs like Travis Kelce, Dalton Schultz, Dallas Goedert and Jake Ferguson. Just a word of caution not to expect a huge game. If he does, great. Studs have a way of performing even when the matchup is rough. But if he doesn’t, don’t panic.
Harold Fannin vs Jags
An overarching concern is the increased competition. KCC and Boston received a lot of praise in camp no surprise. Fannin does a lot of work in the slot where KCC is most effective and Boston has slot & redzone skillset.
The matchup is favorable by the numbers. Jags were 10th most favorable against TEs in 2025. I think TD dependent based on competition.
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