The RB1. It’s the most coveted player in all of fantasy football. Whether you play in a standard fantasy league or one that rewards points per reception (PPR) the consensus top player picked is almost always a running back. The simple reason is this...in every season the top scoring fantasy player (not a QB) is a running back, with some rare occasions in a full PPR league. In today’s NFL, there simply aren’t many featured running backs capable of putting up elite numbers so if you can get one, it is a big advantage. If you can get the top one, it can propel you into a championship. Those that really covet the RB1 are thrilled to get the #1 pick overall in their draft. However, is that top pick going to ensure you get THE top RB for the season? History would say otherwise. For draft strategy, it isn’t a bad call to take the consensus top RB off the board. While getting the top RB for the season is always the goal, landing a top 5 player with the first pick is going to pay dividends. That means, you can take the consensus top player with the knowledge that guy is still primed for a big fantasy season. But what if you could identify who the RB1 was going to be on draft day? I took a look back at the last decade of RB1 finishes searching for similar traits among this elite group in an effort to identify what runner will finish #1 this year. I came up with 3 running backs that fit the mold.
Before we get to the RBs, a look back at the last 10 years of RB1 finishes for PPR, ½ PPR and Standard leagues
2021 = JONATHAN TAYLOR
2020 = ALVIN KAMARA (DERRICK HENRY standard)
2019 = CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY
2018 = SAQUAN BARKLEY (TODD GURLEY standard)
2017 = TODD GURLEY
2016 = DAVID JOHNSON
2015 = DEVONTA FREEMAN
2014 = LE’VEON BELL (DEMARCO MURRAY standard)
2013 = JAMAAL CHARLES
The one thing I found is that there isn't a need to dig into statistics. Obviously, there are power stats for each player in the year they delivered their RB1 performance. But was there anything about the players themselves that could be pre-RB1 predictive? After reviewing these players, I found some intriguing commonalities.
First, thing I noticed is there aren't any repeat performances as the RB1. Todd Gurley can be considered the exception however he did not deliver a solo RB1 performance in his second season, losing out to Saquan in PPR formats. This didn't just go for just back-to-back performances either. Once a player finished as the RB1, they never delivered another RB1 performance again. So that means look for a runner that has yet to be the RB1. Second, all players were on the same team in the previous year, meaning no free agents and no rookies hit the RB1 threshold. Third, I found that all players were 27 or younger when their RB1 season began. Next I looked at preseason consensus rankings for each player. Except for Freeman in 2015, all RB1 finishes were from running backs ranked in the RB top 10 before the season was underway. Lastly, I looked at draft capital. Ekeler is the lone outlier as an undrafted free agent signing that didn’t go 4th round or higher in the NFL draft.
So what are we looking for?
- A player in the top 10 RB rankings
- 4th round or higher draft capital
- Plays for the same team they played for a year ago
- Under 28 years of age
- No previous RB1 finishes
Based on this criteria, I found three players who fit the mold to be the 2023 RB1. Below is my take on each of them, along with their rankings for 2023 based on ½ PPR scoring.
NICK CHUBB (RB6, Overall 10)
Probably the most obvious of the three, Chubb has been a consistent performer since entering the league in 2018 (35th overall selection) and a mainstay in the fantasy top 10 running backs. He finished as the RB5 in 2022, which was his best fantasy finish to date. Can he make it to #1? Considering he isn’t far off from a year ago, absolutely. Take a look at why this could be his year.
One of the reasons Chubb has failed to notch a higher fantasy finish during his career is that he’s had to share the backfield. For most of his time in Cleveland, that time share has been with KAREEM HUNT. This year, Hunt is gone and Cleveland did not bring in someone of significance to replace him. That leaves 35 receptions, 678 scrimmage yards and 4 TDs vacated from Hunt’s performance a year ago. Get this...if Chubb absorbed even half of those numbers into his 2022 finish he would have finished as THE top running back in all of fantasy.
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski boasts a very run heavy system, finishing top 8 in team run play percentage every year since taking over in Cleveland. With DESHAUN WATSON still working his way back into NFL shape and a rebuilt wide receiver room, I expect the Browns to lean on Nick Chubb once again. The good news about this team is that the passing game and overall offense should be improved from a year ago. This puts Chubb in prime position for a career year in touches, yards and scoring opportunities.
Chubb will hit 28 years of age in December which according to the formula means it is this year or bust to reach #1. Chubb is still widely regarded as a first round pick but going at the end of the first round. If you are picking in the back half of your draft, Chubb is the right choice.
TONY POLLARD (RB8, Overall 13)
The Dallas Cowboys have always been about Star power, pun intended. EZEKIEL ELLIOTT had been a constant in the Cowboys offense making the virtual spoon famous in Dallas. However the team could not ignore Pollard’s ascension. Always an efficient runner, Last year marked his highest single season rushing total with 193 carries & he still averaged over 5 yards per carry. In fact, Pollard averages over 5 yards per carry for his career. Pollard also finished with career highs in targets (55), receiving yards (371), total yards (1379), and touchdowns (12). The performance of Pollard is a big reason why the team felt comfortable moving on from Elliott, cutting him in the offseason. The biggest competition for Pollard right now is second year & undrafted free agent MALIK WILLIS. It is hard to imagine Willis or free agent signee RONALD JONES are going to absorb much of Elliott’s 899 vacated yards and 12 touchdowns from 2022, so that leaves Pollard with a lot of room to grow as a fantasy player.
I have concerns whether Pollard can ascend to #1 because to be the RB1 it requires s high touch count. 2022 marked the first time in Pollard’s career where he had over 200 touches in a season. By comparison, Nick Chubb has hit 200+ touches in every season since entering the league. It is a lingering question as to whether Pollard can handle that much of a workload. But if he can, the Dallas offense will afford Pollard opportunities in touches and touchdowns that could make him the top fantasy runner in 2023. Currently going in the second rounds of drafts, he’s worth taking a hard look.
RHAMONDRE STEVENSON (RB10, Overall 18)
My favorite runner on this list. I just love the Rham. He’s an old school
smash mouth kind of runner. At 6’0 230 pounds, he’s built for the rigors
of an NFL feature back. He had a surprise breakout campaign in 2022,
amassing 1,461 total yards. The reason for his breakout surprise was because in 2022 New England’s lead runner was DAMIEN
HARRIS. Now, Harris is no longer with the team and New England did
not bring in another significant contributor in the backfield. What really gives Rham a shot here is his surprisingly strong receiving skills. For his size, you wouldn’t
expect Stevenson to be a soft handed pass catcher but he reeled in 69
catches on 88 targets last year & finished 9th in yard per reception
average (min 50 rec.) ahead of runners like SAQUON BARKLEY & RACHAAD
WHITE. Rhamondre only ended up with 6 touchdowns which hurt his overall
fantasy finish but he showed the Patriots that he can handle lead
running back duties.
Harris doesn’t leave behind as much production (485 yards, 3 touchdowns) as Hunt & Zeke left for Chubb and Pollard respectively. But if Rhamondre can absorb the yards left behind by Harris and improve his touchdown totals, Rhamondre can make a real push for elite fantasy status. Considering he’s available at the end of the second round in drafts, he’s absolutely a runner I want to come away with in 2023. He’s primed to improve on his 2022 RB14 finish so at a minimum worth the pick at his current ADP, especially considering his formula match to the RB1. At just 25 years of age, he’s a must grab in dynasty / keeper leagues too.
It is still early and things can change before the season begins. Free agent running backs like DALVIN COOK, LEONARD FOURNETTE and EZEKIEL ELLIOTT remain unsigned and if they enter the backfield of these three I would expect their ranking to fall outside the top 10, thus leaving them without an ingredient to the #1 overall formula. There are two players just outside the top 10 to keep on eye on should something happen that changes the composition of the current consensus top 10. In other words, if Chubb, Pollard or Stevenson fall outside the top 10, it would most likely vault one of these two into the top 10.
BREECE HALL (RB11, Overall 21)
Watching his college tape, Breece reminded me of future hall of fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson. Taken 36 overall, New York saw upside themselves. With AARON RODGERS running the Jets offense, Hall is in a prime offense to become a fantasy juggernaut. Assuming Hall is 100% back from his ACL tear (and signs point in that direction) he is poised for a strong season.
NAJEE HARRIS (RB12, Overall 23)
Najee
wasn’t the most efficient runner in 2022 but he has the pedigree as a
1st round pick and skill set to be a featured runner. The Steelers
offense and offensive line will be improved from 2022, so Harris is
another potential rebound fantasy runner that is going in the early 3rd
round of redrafts. Keep an eye on him. He's in position to rebound this year.
Get live feedback to your fantasy questions all season long! Follow me on Twitter @AsktheFFC or on Facebook at www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballCommish
Comments
Post a Comment